Two weeks is not enough time to make predictions about the entire NBA season, but it is enough to throw out hot takes and overreactions. Here, we’ll walk through five overreactions about teams off to hot starts, struggling squads and surprising players from around the league as the season ramps up.
Boston and OKC will meet in the 2025 NBA Finals
The Celtics and Thunder are a combined 14-3 so far. They have dominated opponents, winning games by an average of 16.4 (Celtics) and 17.4 (Thunder) points. Jayson Tatum is playing like an MVP, averaging 30 points per game on an efficient 48% from the field. He takes three more 3s per game compared to last season which is clearly a major point of emphasis for the Celtics. As a team they average 51.2 3PA per game, eight more than their league leading 42 per game last year. Most importantly, they’re shooting open 3s. According to NBA.com, they average 23.1 open 3PAs per game, five more than the second place Mavericks.
Their efficient 3-point shooting combined with stellar defense has them looking primed to make it back to the finals.
Opponents can't crack the Thunder defense. Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dortz, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso give teams fits as they’re holding opponents to a league best 40% from the field. They average 4 more steals per game than any other team.
Below is two minutes of their newest addition, Alex Caruso, wreaking havoc on opposing offenses with perfectly timed switches and consistent activity.
Their other new addition, Isaiah Hartenstein, hasn’t even played yet and they look levels above any other western conference team. It’s obviously early, and other teams like the Cavs and Suns will certainly disagree with the finals already being set, but these juggernauts look ready to lead their conferences throughout the season.
The Bucks are in serious trouble
It’s hard to imagine a Giannis and Dame led team scrapping for the eight seed in the east, but they haven’t given us much hope so far. Sitting at the bottom of the east at 1-6, none of their issues from last year are fixed. Their defense looks slow and tired, and their offense features minimal ball movement. When are we going to see the daunted Giannis/Dame pick n roll we were promised a year ago when the Bucks sent away Jrue Holiday to acquire Dame? Seemingly every time I turn on a Bucks game, I see guards blowing past Dame for easy baskets and players standing around as Giannis works in isolation. Still without an update on Khris Middleton’s return, Bucks fans have to be nervous that this team may not be a member of the eastern conference's top tier.
This is the worst rookie class this century
We’ve been spoiled by past drafts loaded with instant contributors like Wemby, Banchero and Chet. Most scouts nailed this draft as underwhelming compared to a few of the previous star studded classes. Top pick Zaccharie Risacher turned in his most impressive performance of his young NBA career against the Knicks, scoring 33 points and adding 7 rebounds. He, along with second overall pick Alex Sarr, both contribute defensively but are still trying to find their shots on offense. The Rockets third overall pick, Reed Sheppard, has barely cracked the rotation and hasn’t shot well when given the opportunity. Grizzlies big man, Zach Edey, who was expected to be an instant contributor because of his size, has struggled adjusting to the faster pace of the NBA, although he just had his first impressive performance against the Nets scoring 25 points and pulling down 12 rebounds. The most impressive rookie so far has been Washington lottery pick Bub Carrington. He is averaging 11 points per game and bringing intensity to a Wizards team lacking defensive firepower. It’s way, way too early to label anyone a bust, but we'll have to be very patient with this rookie class.
Dyson Daniels and Ivica Zubac will Battle For MIP
You could have convinced me Dyson Daniels would be in contention for most improved player before the season. He was buried on a deep Pelicans bench for two years and never found a way to contribute offensively, averaging 4 and 6 points during his time in New Orleans. Through two weeks in Atlanta, Daniels has exceeded all expectations. He is everywhere defensively, leading the league in deflections at 6.4 per game. He provides Trae young, who struggles defensively at times, with constant help. If his offensive game continues to evolve into more than just a catch and shoot player, he’ll earn MIP votes.
Zubac is the shocker here. Coming into his ninth NBA season, he has never averaged over 12 points and 10 rebounds per game. So far this year he sits at 17 points and 13 rebounds. So, why the sudden jump? Having James Harden averaging 10 assists per game certainly helps as he loves giving Zubac easy looks at the rim. But, according to NBA.com, he is averaging 5 post ups per game, good enough for second in the league behind Jokic. That’s a very new wrinkle for Zubac’s game. He is proving to be a great passer out of the post as well, doubling his assist numbers from last year. If Zubac can keep his averages up, he'll find himself in MIP talks at the end of the season.
Jokic should win his fourth MVP
Jokic is averaging 28.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 11 assists through eight games. His numbers are preposterous, but his team offers little help. Jamal Murray still hasn't found his form from a couple seasons ago after a disappointing Olympics. Through six games he is averaging 16 points while shooting just 30% from 3-point range. Michael Porter jr. seems to have made little progress, continuing to jack up untimely threes and underwhelm with his playmaking. Aaron Gordon recently strained his right calf and will miss a few weeks. Christian Braun has been a bright spot for the struggling Nuggets, serviceably filling the void Kentavious Caldwell-Pope left once he bolted for Orlando. He is shooting better from three than Pope while also taking on the challenge of guarding opposing team's best players. Russell Westbrook has been inconsistent so far but has scored 50 points in his last two games. They are somewhat of a mess and still trying to figure out their rotation, but their problems remain the same as last year. They simply cannot function when Jokic is off the court. He is again tasked with lifting up a group of generally average players into a contending team, which he is certainly capable of doing. If he can somehow lead a team full of role players to a top five seed in the western conference, voters will have no choice but to award him another MVP.
Incredibly Mild Overreaction: The Cavaliers are the second best team in the eastern conference
It feels wrong to write an NBA article and not give the 9-0 Cavaliers a mention. Darius Garland has returned to his all star level from a few years ago. Evan Mobley is way more involved in the offense than past years, giving them another scoring option. They have cemented themselves into the top tier of the east alongside the Celtics with impressive wins over the Knicks, Lakers and Bucks twice. We'll see if they can hold onto the league's leading scoring offense as the season progresses.
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