Ridiculous Stats, Real Takeaways

Using the NBA Reference tool, Stathead, I’ve compiled a few stats to give historical context to some of the blazing and shaky starts we have seen from teams and players. Honestly, most of these are cherry-picked and somewhat nonsensical, but they’re still fun to look at and can give insight to how well or poorly players and teams have begun the NBA season.

1. Rockets and Magic Finding Unique Ways to Win

This stat highlights teams in NBA history that shot worse than 33% from three on at least 600 attempts yet won 11 or more of their first 18 games. Only 3 teams have ever accomplished that including the 2024 Magic and Rockets. It is very rare in today's NBA for teams to find success while being bottom five in 3P%, but with impeccable defense and young stars finally reaching their potential, these teams have hit their stride.

Since Magic star Paolo Banchero suffered an oblique injury in the fifth game of the season, Franz Wagner has blossomed, averaging 26/6/6. As one of the only creators on his team with Paolo injured, Franz has adjusted well to having the ball in his hands constantly, averaging over six assists per game (almost double his career average). Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black make it a nightmare for opposing guards to consistently find their shots. If Franz can sustain this level of offensive aggressiveness once Paolo returns, they'll be a top 3 seed in the east.

The Rockets continue to puzzle me. They legitimately have ten solid rotation players. Alperen Sengun continues his transformation into Jokic-lite while Dillon Brooks remains one of the most underrated role players in the league. Most importantly, the NBA should make an exception and give a dual DPOY to Tari Eason and Amen Thompson. They come off of the bench and instantly wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Amen's speed and athleticism combined with Tari's length make it impossible for opposing teams to get comfortable. The Rockets are a prime candidate to cash in on a two-for-one or three-for-one trade for a star who can bring them to the top tier of the western conference (Ingram?, Lavine?, Giannis??).

2. Sixers Season Already Over?

Out of the 126 teams that started an NBA season with a 3-13 record or worse, only 8 made the playoffs (teams listed above). The drama filled Sixers sit at 3-13 with Joel Embiid and Paul George continuing to miss time due to injury. Embiid came back for a few games looking slow and out of shape, but he still managed to put up 35 pts in a loss to the Grizzlies. Paul George has really struggled to start the season, shooting 29% from 3 and averaging only 15 ppg. He isn't consistently beating anyone in isolation and truthfully just looks a step slower. The bright spot in Philly is their backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain. Maxey, an established star, hasn't shot well but is developing his playmaking and seems to be the vocal leader in the locker room after calling out Joel Embiid for being late to meetings. Rookie guard Jared McCain is shooting 40% from 3 on six attempts per game and recently became the first rookie to make at least three 3s in 8 straight games. The Sixers certainly have a bright future with the young backcourt, but another year of Joel Embiid's prime is quickly slipping away.

3. Cavs Historic Start

Above are two stats showing the Cavs sustained brilliance to start the season. The top picture shows all nine teams in NBA history to win at least 17 of their first 18 games. The previous 8 all made it to the conference finals and 4 concluded their seasons with rings.

The bottom picture shows all teams to shoot at least 52% from the floor through the first 18 games of the season. It hasn't been done since 1985, and is doubly as impressive since the Cavs have attempted more 3s than the other nine teams combined to shoot through 18 games. Coach Kenny Atkinson is empowering Evan Mobley to bring the ball up the floor much more than previous years. This has completely changed their offense and given Donovan Mitchell and a finally healthy Darius Garland many more open shots. It's similar to having Draymond as the ball handler and finding Steph or Klay for open threes. Having a big man in Mobley be the ball handler also spaces the floor more by drawing a large defender out of the paint, giving the Cavs easy looks at the rim. If history tells us anything, the Cavs should find themselves in the eastern conference finals fighting to make their first-ever finals appearance without LeBron.

4. LeBron James Greatness

Above is every player in NBA history to play at least 20 seasons with how many points per game they averaged from their 20th season to their last. I'm not breaking any news here, but no player has been as good for as long as LeBron. No one has even been close. After shooting under 40% from 3 from 2013-2023, LeBron has now shot 42% the past two seasons. Even though his athleticism is still first class, he no longer has the energy to drive to the basket and finish through contact on every possession, so he decided to become a tremendous three point shooter, now averaging 24/9/8 as a 39 year old.

His team has issues, though. They are fourth to last in defensive rating and allow 19.3 transition ppg, the most in the league. Simply put, they're slow and oftentimes look lost on defense. While their offense has been good and AD has shot much more consistently this year, they'll need to fix their defense if they want to beat the top teams in the western conference.

5. OKC's Stifling Defense

OKC currently has 199 steals through their first 16 games. To the right are all teams in NBA history to match or exceed that number in their first 16 games. You just have to watch one Thunder game to see that their defense moves differently than others. They lead the league in defensive rating and opponent fg% at 42.1%. Their swarming style makes it very difficult for shooters to get in rhythm. SGA, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Caruso, and Jalen Williams are all premier defenders with quick hands who clog passing lanes and move their feet exquisitely with defenders. Losing center Chet Holmgren for a few months is a significant loss, but Isaiah Hartenstein should replicate a lot of what Chet does defensively, being able to switch the pick n roll and protect the rim. We'll see if the Thunder's defense can lead them to their first championship since 2012.